ideas: Changes: cyclic, one-direction, and systemic

Excellent book about predicting technological future
"Flash Foresight" by Daniel Burrus
introduces concepts of two types of change:

• "cyclical", like seasons of the year, stock market up and down etc.
• "linear", one-way, one-direction, based on "hard trends", i.e. faster computers and network connections etc.

There are also changes that appear to be "linear", but are based on unsustainable "soft trends", such as rising prices of real estate, or increasing consumption of natural resources by human race.

Interesting observation, presented in books about interaction of humans with nature, is that some of those unsustainable "one-direction" trends of human race expansion are periodically being "adjusted" by human ingenuity to find better ways of solving hard problems in a new way... sudden systemic changes ("transformation")

How Humans Deal With A Changing Natural Environment | On Point with Tom Ashbrook:
"... 50th anniversary of the signing of the Wilderness Act of 1964.  
The act drew protective lines around millions of acres and their wildlife.  To mark the anniversary, humans and nature from two angles today.  

... Ruth DeFries calls the Big Rachet – the human pattern of pushing nature to its limits, paying a price, then recovering – even more dominant – with human ingenuity."


The Big Ratchet: How Humanity Thrives in the Face of Natural Crisis: Ruth DeFries: 9780465044979: Amazon.com: Books

History News Network | Humanity’s Ecological History in the Grocery Aisle

Ruth Defries


Ratchet (device) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A ratchet is a mechanical device that allows continuous linear or rotary motion in only one direction while preventing motion in the opposite direction.

This is a very powerful concept, since instead of fatalistic
view it encourages attempting improvements...