China & "The Tribute System" by Ray Dalio

A very elaborate, and well informed, article. 

Unfortunately, both individuals, groups, and nations, are using past as explanation for assertive behavior or even worse. It is part of "natural spirit" of need to show and dominate. May be true, but sad. 

The only way to "rectify" anything is internally. Everything else is just competing for more power.

The Tribute System: The New World Order | LinkedIn

• Shift in Global Power: Global leaders (especially in Asia) perceive that the US lacks the public will and resources to fight multi-front wars, specifically regarding Taiwan. This has accelerated a shift toward China as a regional anchor.
• Economic Rise of China: Chinese exports have generated massive capital surpluses and boosted the global use of the renminbi, allowing China to rapidly expand its economic and financial influence.
• The Tribute System Model: Dalio predicts a modern emergence of a hierarchical "tribute-system-type order," where nations build cooperative, subordinate relationships with China to secure deals and maintain harmony without direct conflict.
• Cultural Influence: Unlike Western bottom-up, individualistic systems, Chinese strategy relies on Confucian hierarchy (order and obedience) and The Art of War principles (winning through behind-the-scenes pressure and deception rather than violent conflict).
• The Goal: President Xi aims to rectify China's historical "100 Years of Humiliation" by achieving self-sufficiency and gradually exerting sovereign authority over Taiwan.