This view is opposite of one by Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman (system 1 and 2)
The claim is that statistical prediction is valid only when future conditions are similar to past.
Otherwise, more data may just lead to bigger mistakes.
Interesting observation:
"Literacy is something that most of us in the western world have learned. But just imagine, a few centuries ago, who would’ve thought that everyone will be able to read and write. Now, today, we need something else. We need risk literacy..."
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions: Gerd Gigerenzer: 9780670025657: Amazon.com: Books:
In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information.
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